Ewan's Corner

Archive for the ‘sci-tech’ Category

A fascinating read via The New York Review of Books – The Chess Master and the Computer, by Gary Kasparov:

“Perhaps chess is the wrong game for the times. Poker is now everywhere, as amateurs dream of winning millions and being on television for playing a card game whose complexities can be detailed on a single piece of paper. But while chess is a 100 percent information game—both players are aware of all the data all the time—and therefore directly susceptible to computing power, poker has hidden cards and variable stakes, creating critical roles for chance, bluffing, and risk management.

These might seem to be aspects of poker based entirely on human psychology and therefore invulnerable to computer incursion. A machine can trivially calculate the odds of every hand, but what to make of an opponent with poor odds making a large bet? And yet the computers are advancing here as well. Jonathan Schaeffer, the inventor of the checkers-solving program, has moved on to poker and his digital players are performing better and better against strong humans—with obvious implications for online gambling sites.

Perhaps the current trend of many chess professionals taking up the more lucrative pastime of poker is not a wholly negative one. It may not be too late for humans to relearn how to take risks in order to innovate and thereby maintain the advanced lifestyles we enjoy. And if it takes a poker-playing supercomputer to remind us that we can’t enjoy the rewards without taking the risks, so be it. “

Some other interesting quotes:

· “By the mid-1990s the number of people with some experience of using computers was many orders of magnitude greater than in the 1960s. In the Kasparov defeat they recognized that here was a great triumph for programmers, but not one that may compete with the human intelligence that helps us to lead our lives.”

· “Today, for $50 you can buy a home PC program that will crush most grandmasters. In 2003, I played serious matches against two of these programs running on commercially available multiprocessor servers—and, of course, I was playing just one game at a time—and in both cases the score ended in a tie with a win apiece and several draws.”

· “Increasingly, a move isn’t good or bad because it looks that way or because it hasn’t been done that way before. It’s simply good if it works and bad if it doesn’t. Although we still require a strong measure of intuition and logic to play well, humans today are starting to play more like computers.”

· “Having a computer partner also meant never having to worry about making a tactical blunder. The computer could project the consequences of each move we considered, pointing out possible outcomes and countermoves we might otherwise have missed. With that taken care of for us, we could concentrate on strategic planning instead of spending so much time on calculations.”

· “Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.”

http://www.badscience.net/2010/07/yeah-well-you-can-prove-anything-with-science/

“Their views on each issue were added together to produce one bumper score on the extent to which they thought science could be informative on all of these questions, and the results were truly frightening. People whose pre-existing stereotypes about homosexuality had been challenged by the scientific evidence presented to them were more inclined to believe that science had nothing to offer, on any question, not just on homosexuality, when compared with people whose views on homosexuality had been reinforced.

When presented with unwelcome scientific evidence, it seems, in a desperate bid to retain some consistency in their world view, people would rather conclude that science in general is broken. This is an interesting finding. But I’m not sure it makes me very happy.”

Now the happy owner of a BlackBerry Bold 9700, I’ve been running the latest formally released OS version 5.0.0.743 for over a week with no issues.

If you want to upgrade (give you something to play with while we all wait for OS 6 later this year), the procedure is as detailed in my previous post Upgrading Your BlackBerry Operating System, and is much faster on the 9700 (took around 40 minutes). You can grab version 743 from the Rogers Wireless BlackBerry download page:

Package Version: 5.0.0.1254
Consisting of:

Applications: 5.0.0.743
Software Platform: 5.1.0.165
File name: 9700M_PBr5.0.0_rel1254_PL5.1.0.165_A5.0.0.743_Rogers_Wireless_Inc.exe
File size: 133.47MB

Improvements:

1. Generally improved phone responsiveness (no more occasional lagging when switching between running apps, media/photo browser is *far* faster with large collections, even the bootup process after a reset is somewhat faster)
2. Browser performance noticeably improved (hotspot / wifi browser in particular)
3. Better battery life (I don’t have metrics, but it definitely seems significantly better)
4. GPS locks are faster (previously locks would take ages, or simply fail after a few minutes)

Changes / potential issues:

• The lock button no longer password locks the phone. Screen is turned off and keypad locked (from accidental presses, like standby) but not password locked as it was before. Not a biggie, since you can still easily lock the phone using the lock icon.
• Standby (via the top mute button) no longer works. However the lock button does pretty much the same thing now as far as I am concerned.
• AT&T users bitching that visual voicemail is broken (not supported locally by MTN so no loss for me).

Disclaimer: Standard disclaimer here, if you’re not comfortable upgrading your phone then don’t. Backup! One of the great things about a BB is the ease of backing up (and should something go wrong, restoring) the phone. This is a new OS version, so you may want to search forums and the like for other user experiences with it before you upgrade.

I’ll repeat the title again, in case you need reinforcement: the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) Vaccine Does Not Cause Autism. There is absolutely no scientific evidence linking the MMR vaccine to autism – any vaccine to autism in fact – and the only study which claimed such a link has been thoroughly discredited since its 1998 publication and recently officially retracted by the medical journal The Lancet:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention praised The Lancet’s retraction, saying, “It builds on the overwhelming body of research by the world’s leading scientists that concludes there is no link between MMR vaccine and autism. We want to remind parents that vaccines are very safe and effective and they save lives. Parents who have questions about the safety of vaccines should talk to their pediatrician or their child’s health care provider.”

This post is my contribution to the storm surrounding the myth that the MMR vaccine causes autism + a misinformed media and the resultant dangerous rise in the cases of Measles and Mumps around the world – diseases which should have been stamped out by now.

The anti-vaccination movement continues to contribute to death and suffering. The disaster in Haiti provides another example of the potential for serious harm resulting from resistance to vaccines defending against preventable diseases like tetanus.

Ben Goldacre, of BadScience.net and a bad science debunking hero of mine, said in a recent post:

You could regard this as your stimulus to make a pledge to take on
anti-vaccine quacks wherever they appear, and make a deposit in the
karma bank, promising to write a letter, or a blog entry, or make a
formal complaint about the next outburst you see in the media. I think
this is very important. –Ben Goldacre

and he also has plenty to say on the dangerous role of the media in the whole storm, as well as schmucks like Jeni Barnett, as does Stephen Fry:

“The fatuity of the Jeni Barnett woman’s manner – her blend of
self-righteousness and stupidity, her simply quite staggering inability
to grasp, pursue or appreciate a sequence of logical steps – all these
are signature characteristics of Britain these days. The lamentable
truth is that most of the population wouldn’t really understand why we
get so angry at this assault on reason, logic and sense. But we have to
keep hammering away at these people and their superstitious inanities.
We have to. Well done you and well done all you supporting. I’ve
tweeted this site to my followers. I hope they all do their best to
support you. Publish and be damned. We’ll fight them and fight them and
fight them in the name of empricism, reason, double blind random
testing and all that matter.”

~~Stephen Fry

Mr Fry is correct – the anti-vaccination movement is an assault on reason, logic and sense.

Wired’s article is probably the best one I’ve come across on the subject (thanks Janet, and thanks author Amy Wallace) – An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents Skipping Shots Endangers Us All. It points out how the effects of falling vaccination rates can be devastating – and references other studies that, among other things, “help dispel one of the commonly held beliefs among vaccine-refusing parents: that their children are not at risk for vaccine-preventable diseases“.

The bottom line: Pseudo-science preys on well-intentioned people who, motivated by love for their kids, become vulnerable to one of the world’s oldest professions. Enter the snake-oil salesman.

To be clear, there is no credible evidence to indicate that any of this is true. None. Twelve epidemiological studies have found no data that links the MMR (measles/mumps/rubella) vaccine to autism; six studies have found no trace of an association between thimerosal (a preservative containing ethylmercury that has largely been removed from vaccines since 20011) and autism, and three other studies have found no indication that thimerosal causes even subtle neurological problems. The so-called epidemic, researchers assert, is the result of improved diagnosis, which has identified as autistic many kids who once might have been labeled mentally retarded or just plain slow. In fact, the growing body of science indicates that the autistic spectrum — which may well turn out to encompass several discrete conditions — may largely be genetic in origin. In April, the journal Nature published two studies that analyzed the genes of almost 10,000 people and identified a common genetic variant present in approximately 65 percent of autistic children.

~~Wired, An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents Skipping Shots Endangers Us All

Links and resources:

• Measles Outbreak Triggered by Unvaccinated Child (Case illustrates that people who chose not to vaccinate put others at risk, researcher says) – HealthDay, March 22, 2010
• An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents Skipping Shots Endangers Us All (Wired, October 2009)
• U.S. court rules again against vaccine-autism claims (Reuters, March 12th 2010)
• The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe – their fun and informative podcasts have dealt with the anti-vaccine movement before (e.g. Podcast 232 – the 2009 year in review – is well worth listening to)
• New York Times health – Don’t Blame Flu Shots for All Ills, Officials Say (September, 2009)
• WSJ article L.A. Confidential: Seeking Reasons for Autism’s Rise (Feb 2010)
• Should I vaccinate my baby? (from our very own local Skeptic Detective, May 2009)
• Making things a little more personal – little Dana McCaffery (2009)
• Babycentre has plenty of vaccine information:
  • Does the MMR vaccine put my child at greater risk for autism?
  • Vaccines and autism: Separating fact from fiction
  • Autism-vaccination link back in the news